SAP.DE · suggested 25 Oct
SAP is the German maker of the enterprise resource planning software that runs finance, supply chains and payroll for large companies, now moving customers onto its cloud. It sits in the software theme, with AI features sold on top of its installed base. It is liked for very high switching costs and a cloud backlog growing about 26% a year.
Where this sits in the cycle
Late-cycle, with US rates rising and a hike likely in December; quality software has drawn money out of semiconductors this month. The risk is that the rotation reverses or that a European slowdown hits licence and cloud deals in the strong fourth quarter.
The diary
Each entry records the price of the day beside your judgment of it. The figures are captured once and never argue with memory; the words stay yours to rewrite or remove.
Today the price sits 12% above its 50-day average and 29% above its 200-day average.
SAP.DE · suggested 25 Oct
212,25 USD
-1,0% since suggestion at 214,4 USD
Measured in the same money, the pick is -1,0% against +0,0% for iShares Global Tech Index, the bet to beat, over the same stretch.
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